Prospects for an immediate end to the war between Iran and the US remained uncertain on Friday amid a chaotic series of conflicting claims and counter-claims by US and Iranian officials about ongoing negotiations.
Donald Trump seemed to distance himself from his earlier comments that suggested a preliminary agreement could be signed as soon as this weekend, with a series of angry social media posts describing the Iranians as “very dishonorable people to deal with”.
“With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith …. They better get their act together, and FAST! ” the US president wrote on Friday.
The outburst came after Iranian news agencies close to the regime denied that the terms of any deal had been fully agreed, and published a supposed draft of a finalised deal.
Further adding to the confusion, Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, on Friday claimed, in a post on social media, that a final agreed text of a peace deal between the United States and Iran had been reached, without providing any further information.
Neither Tehran nor Washington have confirmed that a final version of the deal has been agreed upon, though one senior US official separately suggested an “80 to 85% ” likelihood of an agreement being signed within days.
“Most of the people that we’ve been speaking to, and most of the people who have authority within their system, want to sign this deal, but not everybody,” the senior official said. “And those internal fractures are sort of working themselves out as they continue to try to get to a point where they can say yes to the deal.”
The senior official added that Iran would “get rewarded economically for complying with their obligations under the deal”.
“I think that both of us [the US and Iran] feel frankly pretty good about where there’s a meeting of the minds here, there’s going to be a significant relief of economic sanctions,” the official said.
Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Friday that an “Islamabad memorandum of understanding” for addressing the US-Israeli war on Iran had “never been closer” but urged media outlets to refrain from speculating about its contents until it was finalised.
Araghchi said Iran would share all details with the public in due course, in what he called Tehran’s responsible and transparent approach.
IRNA, Iran’s state news agency, also confirmed that “the broad outlines” of a deal were being finalised, but sowed further confusion when it said that Iran would not give up its control of the strait of Hormuz, which carried a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied gas supplies and has been shut to most shipping by Tehran since shortly after the war began in February.
The US has insisted that Tehran, which wants to levy lucrative tolls on passage through the straits, restore freedom of shipping in the crucial waterway.
A US official on Friday said the strait of Hormuz would open and the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports as a part of the terms that Washington and Tehran have agreed.
Since a ceasefire came into effect in April, Trump has repeatedly claimed a deal was on the point of completion, only to then revert to threatening Iran with new attacks.
Recent days have seen the most intense clashes between Iran, Israel and the United States since the ceasefire. Trump on Thursday threatened to seize Iran’s oil export terminal of Kharg Island and launch a new wave of attacks, then suddenly claimed a diplomatic breakthrough, saying that a draft deal had been “approved” by “the highest level of Iranian leadership”.
Details of the supposed deal leaked or briefed by each side included a series of major concessions by the other, suggesting that big gaps remain.
On Friday, Trump dismissed a report of the text of the draft deal published by Iran’s Mehr news agency, which quoted a source close to Iran’s negotiating team, as bearing “no relation to the truth”.
The draft would end conflict on all fronts, including Lebanon, where Israel has launched an offensive against Hezbollah, and ensure the release of $24bn in Iran’s frozen assets, the semi-official agency claimed.
It would also set a 60-day period for negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear programme, offer the suspension of sanctions on the sale of Iran’s oil and petrochemical products, bring generous reparations to be paid by the US, and lift the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, in place since 13 April.
The claims contrasted dramatically with statements from Washington, where officials said the agreement stipulated that Iran’s nuclear material will be destroyed, and its nuclear programme dismantled, none of its frozen money will be released until it meets certain demands, and Iran will stop supporting allied militant movements around the Middle East.
Underlining the ongoing tensions over the strait of Hormuz, US forces on Thursday shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones after Tehran attempted to strike commercial ships passing through the waterway, according to US officials.
Iran’s military stopped a tanker from transiting the strait, Iranian state media said, reporting the sound of explosions early on Friday.
Trump is under domestic political pressure to end the war, with polls showing his approval ratings sinking as fuel prices rise.
Some Republicans have openly worried that the war’s unpopularity could cost them control of Congress in November’s midterm elections.
But Iran’s regime also faces serious challenges, with its oil exports restricted and inflation soaring.
“We are currently under sanctions, and our routes have been blocked. We face a difficult test,” Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, said in a live address on state television on Wednesday. “Governing the country is not an easy task under the current circumstances, given the shortages we face, the unrest we have experienced and the problems that remain.”
US officials have suggested that regional allies have agreed to terms of a deal, but curbs on fighting in Lebanon could be difficult to accept for Israel, which started the war alongside the US in February but has not been included in peace negotiations.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, said on Friday that he and Trump were in “full agreement” to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
On Thursday, Netanyahu said he had spoken to Trump and “expressed his appreciation” for the US president’s commitment that any final deal would also involve limits on Tehran’s missile production, and the cessation of Iran’s support for its “terrorist proxies” in the region, which include Hezbollah.
Diplomats and analysts in the Middle East said that Iran’s still potent ballistic missile capabilities and its support for militant movements were not part of current negotiations.
A leading Hezbollah politician expressed confidence on Friday that Iran will insist on Lebanon being included in a deal between Tehran and Washington.
Hezbollah entered the regional conflict on 2 March, opening fire at Israel and leading to an Israeli offensive that has killed thousands of people in Lebanon.
Israeli strikes on Beirut prompted Tehran to launch waves of ballistic missiles aimed at central Israel last week.
“If the agreement happens, we have complete confidence in the Islamic Republic … [and] that it will insist on any agreement, including the file of Lebanon,” Hassan Fadlallah said in an excerpt of a speech broadcast by Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV.
Israeli forces have occupied swathes of southern Lebanon, where Lebanon’s national news agency reported fresh Israeli airstrikes in several towns and villages on Friday.
Last week, Mohsen Rezaee, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said Hezbollah had “made great sacrifices” in the war and that Lebanon “will be an inseparable part of any agreement and any ceasefire”, in comments reported by the Mehr news agency.
The war in Lebanon has continued despite several ceasefires announced by the US, which has been mediating talks between the Lebanese and Israeli governments.
Hezbollah is not a party to these talks and rejected a US-backed plan declared last week that called for the group to withdraw its fighters from southern Lebanon.
