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In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur takes stock of President Donald Trump’s efforts to unseat Republicans who have fallen out of favor with him. Plus, Matt Dixon surveyed GOP officials across the country for a temperature check ahead of the midterms.
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— Adam Wollner
Tune in to Here’s the Scoop’s special Supreme Court Edition, where Senior Legal Correspondent Laura Jarrett goes deep on major cases.
Trump’s crusade to oust disloyal Republicans underscores the party’s dilemma
Analysis by Sahil Kapur
President Donald Trump ousted another Republican perceived as disloyal to him over the weekend as Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., lost his primary, ending a 20-year political career.
Trump faces another test tomorrow as his No. 1 GOP foe in Congress, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., faces a primary opponent running with Trump’s “complete and total endorsement.”
In his 2024 campaign, Trump ran in part on “retribution” against those who he believes have wronged him. In some cases, that includes calling on the Justice Department to prosecute critics like former FBI Director James Comey and Democratic lawmakers.
In the cases of Republicans like Cassidy and Massie, he is wielding his commanding influence with GOP primary voters to endorse their challengers. In other cases, he has strategically withheld his endorsement.
Cassidy’s cardinal sin was that he voted to convict Trump after the House impeached him in 2021 for inciting the Jan. 6 insurrection as he was on his way out of office.
It didn’t matter that Cassidy had regularly voted in alignment with Trump’s priorities — during his first term and when he returned to office last year. Cassidy, a pro-vaccine doctor who chairs the Senate HELP Committee, also cast a pivotal vote for the nomination of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., despite his palpable discomfort with the longtime vaccine critic.
Trump never forgot his conviction vote. He endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow, who advanced to a runoff along with former Rep. John Fleming, while Cassidy was held to barely 25% of the vote.
Massie’s situation is different. He has been more willing to use his power against Trump from an ideologically conservative or “America First” standpoint — including by opposing spending bills, rejecting policies that explode the national debt, backing forcing the release of the Epstein files and opposing the Iran war.
He has arguably been the biggest thorn in Trump’s side within the GOP. Massie told NBC News that Trump is “trying to beat up on me to try to keep everybody else in line.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth even made an unusual stop on the campaign trail to boost Massie’s primary rival, Ed Gallrein. Massie, who was first elected in 2012, has built a brand as someone who’s willing to cross his party from a position of principle. But will it be enough for him to withstand the barrage from Trump and his allies?
Then, in Texas, there are two Republicans who have regularly voted with Trump but failed to win his affections. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, the only Texas Republican incumbent who ran without Trump’s endorsement, lost his primary. And Republican Sen. John Cornyn is locked in the political fight of his life in a runoff against state Attorney General Ken Paxton next week after Trump declined to endorse him.
The Cornyn-Paxton primary captures the GOP dilemma: Trump retains immense power within the Republican base, but his grip on the rest of the electorate is rapidly slipping as voters give him low marks on the economy, the war in Iran and his overall job performance. Republican operatives worry that the Texas Senate seat will be tougher to win if Paxton is their nominee against Democrat James Talarico.
A New York Times/Siena poll released today found Trump’s approval rating sinking to 37%. But among Republicans, 82% said they approve of the job he is doing. On the cost of living specifically, 28% of registered voters overall approve of Trump’s performance. Among Republicans, that number is 63%.
On the generic congressional ballot, voters said by 50%-39% that they’d rather support a Democrat for Congress than a Republican. That’s blue wave territory — in 2018, when Democrats won 40 House seats, the generic ballot favored Democrats by around 8 points.
What GOP officials are hopeful — and worried — about six months from the midterms
By Matt Dixon
President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot this year, but with roughly six months before Election Day, he’s still likely to be the biggest factor in determining the fortunes of the Republican Party.
Republicans have lost a number of elections in the past six months — sometimes by overwhelming margins — giving Democrats a sense of momentum. That feeling is enhanced by Trump’s low approval ratings, his inability to lower stubbornly high costs and the ongoing war with Iran.
On top of all that is the historical trend that the party that controls the White House generally loses congressional seats during the midterms.
Nevertheless, Republicans across the country say they see reason for optimism.
NBC News reached out to more than 120 members of the Republican National Committee and GOP activists across the country to get a sense of how they view their electoral chances at this point in time. In roughly 30 interviews, these Republicans said they believe the party can hold on to its majority in Congress. But they also had clear ideas about what they want from leaders at the national level to stave off a potential blue wave.
Republicans got a boost this month when two court decisions gave them the upper hand in the redistricting fight, most likely reducing the number of congressional seats Democrats can pick up in November. The GOP has also raised significantly more money than major Democratic groups, and there is cautious optimism that gas prices will go down if Trump can wrap up the Iran war.
“Before the redistricting conversation, it seemed like it could be tough sledding, but after the Supreme Court ruling, I think we are playing with house money,” said AK Kamara, the RNC national committeeman from Minnesota. “I think Republicans are going to be able to pick up lots of seats without having to flip seats.”
Read more →
🗞️ Today’s other top stories
- ➡️ Iran war: Trump said he is calling off an attack on Iran planned for tomorrow because regional leaders had urged him to allow negotiations to continue and a “very acceptable” deal for the U.S. was at hand. Read more →
- ➕ Ebola outbreak: A person from the U.S. has tested positive for Ebola in connection with the deadly outbreak in Congo and Uganda, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced. Read more →
- 💰 ‘Anti-Weaponization Fund’: The Justice Department announced that it was establishing a $1.776 billion taxpayer-backed fund after Trump moved to dismiss a $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over his leaked tax returns. Read more →
- 🗳️ Battle for the House: In Pennsylvania’s battleground 7th District, Bob Brooks, the head of the state firefighters union, and Ryan Crosswell, a Marine veteran and former federal prosecutor, are the leading Democratic candidates in tomorrow’s primary. The result will say a lot about the future of the party. Read more →
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.
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