El Niño is strengthening and the risks of a historic event with the power to supercharge extreme weather around the world are rising, according to the latest analysis from the US National Weather Service.
Models show there is now an 81% chance that a very strong El Niño “that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950” will develop before the end of this year, forecasters said in an advisory released Thursday. There is almost near certainty – a 97% probability – that the conditions will persist through spring 2027.
“The odds and the magnitudes just keep rising,” climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a broadcast discussion on Thursday, explaining that the conditions observed are already in record-breaking territory. “El Niño so far, for the calendar date, is as strong or stronger than we’ve ever seen before, and that is a trajectory that is expected to continue,” he added.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warming of the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and it can create a huge atmospheric upset. It alters jet streams and flips precipitation patterns, fueling more severe storms in some parts of the world, while desiccating others.
Each El Niño event is unique with considerable variability among them, and many factors drive weather. But climate scientists around the world are warning that a so-called “super El Niño” – one that drives sea surface temperatures at least 2C (36F) higher than average – would have enormous power to wreak havoc and could set the stage for record global heat. Its effects would layer on top of impacts already being fueled by the climate crisis.
A super El Niño that occurred in 2015 brought severe drought in Ethiopia and water supply shortages in Puerto Rico, and smashed records after unleashing a vicious hurricane season in the central-north Pacific, according to an analysis by US federal scientists. The cycle tends to create drought and heat across Australia, around southern and central Africa, in India and in parts of South America, including in the Amazon rainforest. Heavy precipitation, meanwhile, could hit the southern tier of the US, parts of the Middle East and south-central Asia.
Forecasts that global temperatures are expected to climb higher in the coming year come amid an already devastatingly hot spring and summer. Western Europe baked through what became the hottest June on record, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as several countries broke all-time records.
“June 2026 underscored how profoundly the climate is changing,” Dr Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of C3S, said in a statement. “The result is increasingly intense heatwaves, a persistently warm ocean, and growing risks for people, ecosystems and infrastructure.”
More than 3,700 excess deaths were recorded across France, the Netherlands and Belgium – a number that’s likely underestimated. Twenty US states recorded temperatures above 100F (38C) during a punishing heat dome that marred Fourth of July celebrations last week, causing at least dozens more deaths and millions of emergency room visits.
An enormous heat dome is also forecast to expand over the US west and into the central plains this week, threatening more stifling conditions.
“By Sunday and Monday, we start to see some eyebrow-raising temperatures,” Swain said, adding that heat records could be set in swaths of the interior west, with several states bracing for heat pushing past 100F. This could increase fire dangers in the drought-stricken region. On Thursday, firefighters were battling 38 large wildfires across the country. More than 3.4m acres (1.4m hectares) have already burned in the US this year.
