The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June jobs report, which will be released on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that the recent trend of stable hiring continued for a fourth straight month, but that wage growth remains below inflation.
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The report is likely to show a gain of 115,000 jobs, the unemployment rate largely unchanged at 4.3% and average hourly wage growth of 3.5%, according to a survey of analysts and economists conducted by Dow Jones.
The report is being issued on Thursday instead of its traditional Friday release because U.S. bond and stock markets will be closed July 3 in observance of Independence Day.
The big picture on jobs
The U.S. labor market has spent the past three months trying to get back on solid footing after several months of net job losses near the end of 2025.
And it appears to be working: During each of the past three months, the U.S. economy posted solid job gains of more than 170,000, after multiple months of job contraction.
Even if Thursday’s overall figure is more than 115,000 job gains, it could still be the smallest number of additions since February.
Many economists also see fresh risks to the labor market lurking ahead.
“After three months of strong payroll job gains and the unemployment rate stable at 4.3%, markets have become accustomed to the narrative that the labor market has stabilized,” wrote Citigroup economist Veronica Clark in a client note last week.
“But a number of other weaker data points … lead us to think that strength in payroll data is not a sign of sustainably stronger demand for workers,” she wrote.
On the low side, Citigroup expects “a modest 25k increase in payrolls in June with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%.”
The World Cup factor
At UBS, economists warned readers not to be drawn to the idea hiring related to the North American World Cup.
“We expect the World Cup to add 15K to 20K jobs to the change in private employment in June,” the UBS team wrote in a client note last week.
They said the jobs would likely be “spread over temp help, spectator sports and venues, and a few other places, but with very little in accommodation and food services employment.”
Not only will the World Cup not boost employment at hotels and restaurants, they predicted, but these temporary jobs in “June and July should subsequently depress July and August employment gains modestly,” they wrote.
The World Cup, which runs from July 11 through July 19, is being hosted at 11 U.S. stadiums in major cities including New York, Miami, San Francisco, Dallas and Atlanta.
But not everyone is so bearish. Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra wrote this week that she expects June payrolls to rise by a “robust” 110,000 positions.
“That said, we see downside risks: May’s surge in leisure & hospitality may have been driven by the World Cup or Memorial Day timing. And if it was the latter,” she wrote, then June payrolls could take a hit.
A summer slowdown
Mishra also cautioned that hiring gains in local government could “see a large reversal” to correct what she said was an “outsized gain” in May.
One of the sunniest jobs predictions come from JPMorgan Chase, where economists expect 125,000 jobs, well above the consensus.
“Payroll growth has accelerated this year, with the three-month average now at 188k and six-month average at 92k, compared to just 10k per month in all of 2025,” wrote JPMorgan economist Abiel Reinhart on Wednesday. That said, “we suspect the three-month average is probably overstating the trend a bit.”
“One factor that calls for some caution is the notion that there could be a summer slowdown, with the three-month average in private jobs having bottomed in August in each of the last two years.”
Jennifer Timmerman, senior investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo, said that “Overall, we view the broad mosaic of jobs data as consistent with labor-market stabilization from weakness in late 2025, rather than renewed strength.”
She also sees some warning signs. “We anticipate moderating job growth in the coming months as the U.S. economy likely experiences some loss of momentum in a lagged response to higher fuel costs and an end to tax refunds that temporarily boosted consumer spending in the spring,” Timmerman wrote Wednesday.
The wage growth dilemma
Currently tracking at 3.4%, Americans’ average hourly earnings are “still lingering near post-Covid lows,” UBS noted, and on Thursday the number is expected to budge up only slightly to 3.5% from a year ago.
Inflation is a sore spot for many Americans, and according to polls and consumer surveys suggest U.S. adults are gradually growing more dissatisfied with the economy over time. Wholesale inflation is hitting businesses hard, too.
The Producer Price Index in May notched its highest monthly gain since late 2022. Many experts view this trend as an early warning sign of what’s to come for consumers.
Another monthly inflation gauge known to be the Federal Reserve’s favorite metric, recently hit its highest since April 2023.
Also in May, inflation – now at 4.2% – was higher than wage growth for the second month in a row. The pace of growth has slowed since late last year, when average hourly earnings were growing consistently at nearly 4%.
Inflation has been rising primarily because of sky-high energy prices. While prices have come down significantly from their worst levels this year, the average retail gasoline price per gallon is still 30% higher since before the war.
“Wage growth does not turn around quickly,” the Center for Economic and Policy Research noted on Tuesday, but said strong hiring could raise it.
On Wednesday, ADP reported that the private sector added fewer jobs in June than many experts had been looking for. While the ADP report rarely lines up with the U.S. government’s official labor figures, some economists saw Wednesdsay’s data as yet another warning sign.
“The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. “We know it’s taking people longer to find work, but there also are signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries.”
“For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation,” she added.
