Tehran, Iran – Iran’s leadership has not closed the door on a potential deal with the United States, but more hawkish voices on both sides are pushing for demands that are making any understanding elusive.
More than three months after the start of the war, Washington and Tehran are yet to agree on how to handle international transit through the Strait of Hormuz following Iran’s insistence on controlling the waterway and the US blockade of Iran’s ports. It is also unclear if the two sides can reach a longer-term deal on nuclear enrichment and the buried highly enriched uranium in Iran, or on the lifting of US and United Nations sanctions on Iran.
The US military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been trading fire over recent days, with Tehran accusing Washington of repeated violations of the ceasefire reached in early April. Israeli media reported online that an explosion on Sunday night in an apartment building in Tehran’s Andisheh was a targeted assassination of an IRGC general, but the Iranian media said it was a gas leak.
Iran’s top military, religious and political leaders and institutions continue to emphasise that there will be no “surrender” amid deep distrust towards the US, but subtle differences between their postures persist.
Here’s a look at the leadership and where they stand:
Mojtaba Khamenei
The son of slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was selected to helm the theocratic and military establishment shortly after reportedly being wounded in the same strikes that killed his father and other family members.
He has not been seen or heard from publicly except for written messages attributed to him, amid concerns that he is a potential target for assassination by the US and Israel. He does not enjoy the same level of clout as his father, who held absolute power for nearly 37 years, but by law, his approval is required for key decisions.
In the messages, Khamenei has not cast himself as anti-talks, but has stressed that “the bright future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without the US and in service of progress, calm and welfare for its nations”.
He has also referred to Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes as “national assets” to be guarded just like territorial borders; asked supporters and armed forces to keep taking to the streets every night in protest against the US and Israel; and signalled that he expects sanctions against Iran to remain in place by calling for the country to be prepared for another year of a “resistance economy”.
Military, security bloc
The military and security factions led by generals in the IRGC have been elevated to new heights of power amid the US-Israel war on Iran.
The top commanders running the war have refrained from making public statements about the details of negotiations with the US, but are believed to have access to Khamenei and to wield enormous influence in steering the decision-making process. They have signalled a firm position against granting major concessions to US President Donald Trump.
Ahmad Vahidi, the commander-in-chief of the IRGC, has focused his narrative on deterrence, dominance in escalation if necessary, and achieving “victory” over what he has described as a “failing superpower” and its top ally, Israel. He has warned of a “destructive and hellish response in regional and trans-regional dimensions” if the war restarts.
Ali Abdollahi, the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of armed forces, has stressed that “the security of the Strait of Hormuz is led by the armed forces” of Iran, who remain prepared to fire on opponents if needed.
Last week, Majid Mousavi, the leader of the aerospace division of the IRGC that launched projectiles across the region during the war, recalled the slain Khamenei’s words that “negotiating with the enemy is pure loss”.
Mohammad Ali Jafari, former chief commander of the IRGC who now heads the Baqiatallah Headquarters of the force, last month delineated five conditions that need to be met for negotiations to yield results: end of the war on all fronts, including Lebanon and other areas of the Tehran-backed “axis of resistance”; lifting sanctions; release of frozen assets; war reparations; and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over Hormuz.
Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, another member of the IRGC old guard, now acts as an arbiter in the position of the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, whose previous chief, Ali Larijani, was also assassinated during the war.
Only one short written message has been released from him since acquiring the position, saying “there will be no surrender or retreat” while emphasising “unity” among supporters of the state.
Jalili’s Paydari and hardline MPs
The Paydari Front, led by Saeed Jalili, a longtime figure in the Supreme National Security Council, is believed to be a representative for some of the extreme hardline factions within Iran.
Jalili used to be the security chief and top negotiator with Western powers from 2007 to 2013 during much of the tenure of populist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Years of talks failed to produce any results at that time, which preceded the now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal reached under President Hassan Rouhani, and Iran became subject to tough UN sanctions over its nuclear programme.
Jalili has acted as an unyielding and maximalist opponent of engaging with the West and granting concessions, and counts Ali Bagheri Kani, chief negotiator under former President Ebrahim Raisi, among his top allies.
During the war, Jalili has framed talks as acceptable only as recognition of Iranian power, has stressed that guarantees must be obtained so any long-term deal is not dependent on “trusting” the US, and said sanctions, assassinations and war are “levers” used by the enemy that must be “neutralised” altogether.
“Today the world well attests that the new [regional] order will be set not by America and the Zionist regime [Israel], but by the victories and powerful discourse of resistance,” he said in April.
Jalili is backed by a slew of ultraconservative representatives from Tehran and other cities who have dominated the Iranian parliament since 2020 in historically low-turnout elections.
Among those lawmakers are influential religious figures Mahmoud Nabavian and Hamid Rasaei, as well as MPs such as Ebrahim Azizi, Abbas Moqtadaei, and other members of the parliamentary commission on national security.
The government’s faces
Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, led the Iranian negotiating team during the first round of mediated negotiations with the US in Pakistan in April. Ghalibaf is a former IRGC commander who also rails against “capitulation”, but has said he is in favour of a pragmatic deal to end hostilities.
President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have also made similar comments to support a negotiated peace that secures Iranian interests.
Some of the harshest positions adopted against the opponents of Iran are broadcast through state television, or IRIB.
State TV channels regularly use their hosts and various guests, including masked military commanders, to deliver messages, or more recently, offer gun training to supporters and call on them to “sacrifice” for the state.
They have also discussed “acceptable” terms for Iran for an interim deal, which include authority over the Strait of Hormuz, engaging in vessel classification and transit fees, and quick access to at least $12bn in assets frozen abroad.
Then there are Tasnim, Fars, Mehr and numerous news outlets linked with the IRGC, which during the war broadcast lines from the authorities and pitched extreme ideas such as tolling seabed internet cables.
The ultraconservative Keyhan newspaper has also proven a mainstay for broadcasting maximalist positions for decades, with editor-in-chief Hossein Shariatmadari — who was appointed by Ali Khamenei — repeatedly calling for Iran to close down the Strait of Hormuz, abandon the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and seriously consider building nuclear bombs.
