World Cup group winner odds 2026: Betting guide

World Cup 2026 begins on June 11, with 48 teams ready to compete in the USA, Canada and Mexico. This is the biggest edition of the tournament ever, and the expansion from 32 sides to 48 has brought about a change in format. 

The competition begins with a group phase as ever, with eight third-place finishers set to go through to the knockout phase alongside the winners and runners-up. A round of 32 will follow, before the customary round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, third-place play-off and final.

Because of this change, the “Group Winner” market is the strategic choice for bettors who want plus-money prices on top-tier nations – backing them to simply qualify for the knockout rounds won’t offer much value.

The latest World Cup 2026 odds can be found in our comprehensive betting guide, which includes our expert predictions about how the tournament will unfold.

Upcoming group stage fixtures & match tips

World Cup 2026 begins on 11th June with the co-hosts Mexico taking on South Africa, a repeat of the curtain-raiser from 2010. The first set of group games will run until 18th June, so we will have our first look at all 48 teams in the first week of the tournament. Here are our match tips for matchday one.

Dates shown are based on UK kick-off times 

Fixture and Date	talkSPORT Verdict	Rationale
Mexico vs South Africa, 11th June	Mexico win	Home advantage should help Mexico see off South Africa in the opening match
South Korea vs Czechia, 12th June	Draw	South Korea may rue a lack of cutting edge against a robust Czechia outfit
Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina, 12th June	Draw	Bosnia & Herzegovina could frustrate a Canada side better suited to playing in transition
USA vs Paraguay, 13th June	USA win	Paraguay can be a tough nut to crack, but the USA should edge it on home soil
Qatar vs Switzerland, 13th June	Switzerland win	Switzerland are potential dark horses and they will dominate a Qatar outfit that struggled in 2022
Brazil vs Morocco, 13th June	Brazil win	Morocco upset the odds at World Cup 2022, but Brazil will fancy their chances on matchday one
Haiti vs Scotland, 14th June	Scotland win	Haiti are rank outsiders at the competition, so Scotland are clear favourites in this one
Australia vs Türkiye, 14th June	Draw	Australia’s spirit and organisation can help them avoid defeat by a technical Türkiye team
Germany vs Curaçao, 14th June	Germany win	This is not one of the best Germany teams of all time, but they will have too much for Curaçao
Netherlands vs Japan, 14th June	Draw	Japan have the potential to go far this summer, but both they and the Netherlands may have to settle for a point first up
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador, 15th June	Ecuador win	Ecuador’s solid defensive unit can help them kick off their campaign with a victory over Ivory Coast
Sweden vs Tunisia, 15th June	Draw	Sweden’s attack could be blunted by Tunisia’s defence in what looks set to be a low-scoring encounter
Spain vs Cape Verde, 15th June	Spain win	European champions Spain should have few problems against African debutants Cape Verde
Belgium vs Egypt, 15th June	Belgium win	Egypt can be stubborn opposition, but Belgium have the tools to prise their backline open
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay, 15th June	Draw	All is not well in the Uruguay camp, so do not be surprised if Saudi Arabia get something
Iran vs New Zealand, 16th June	Iran win	Despite their rocky preparation, Iran can collect three points against New Zealand
France vs Senegal, 16th June	France win	France have the strongest squad at the tournament and can overwhelm a good Senegal side
Iraq vs Norway, 16th June	Norway win	Norway’s attack is likely to overwhelm Iraq as both sides return to the world stage
Argentina vs Algeria, 17th June	Argentina win	Argentina may need to be patient but they will eventually break down Algeria
Austria vs Jordan, 17th June	Austria win	Austria’s pressing will be more effective in this evening kick-off against Jordan
Portugal vs DR Congo, 17th June	Portugal win	Portugal are a strong contender for the trophy and they could put a few goals past DR Congo
England vs Croatia, 17th June	Draw	Not an easy opening game for England against familiar opponents in Croatia
Ghana vs Panama, 18th June	Ghana win	Could be one of the tightest matches of the first round, but Ghana have more quality in the final third
Uzbekistan vs Colombia, 18th June	Colombia win	Colombia will not have everything their own way, but their superior firepower could settle this one

📊 World Cup group odds analysis & live standings (Groups A – D)

Groups A to D feature all three host nations, one of the outright favourites to lift the trophy, and a couple of potential dark horses…

Group A: Mexico’s high-altitude advantage

Mexico will play all three games on home turf, where altitude advantage could play its part. Yet El Tri must show they can handle the pressure that comes with being co-hosts.

Second spot is likely to be a shootout between South Korea and Czechia, but South Africa are a decent footballing side and cannot be ruled out.

Pos.	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Win Odds
1	Mexico	0	0	0	0	0	0	Evens
2	South Africa	0	0	0	0	0	0	12/1
3	South Korea	0	0	0	0	0	0	10/3
4	Czechia	0	0	0	0	0	0	9/4

⚽ Bet on Mexico to win Group A at Evens with bet365 ⚽

Group B: Canada most unfancied co-hosts

Canada are targeting a place in the knockout stage of the World Cup for the first time in their history, but a well-coached Switzerland are the team to beat in Group B.

Bosnia & Herzegovina are potentially awkward opponents, as they demonstrated in their play-off victory over Italy. Qatar are the outsiders.

Pos.	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Win Odds
1	Canada	0	0	0	0	0	0	9/4
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	0	0	0	0	0	0	10/3
3	Qatar	0	0	0	0	0	0	33/1
4	Switzerland	0	0	0	0	0	0	4/5

⚽ Bet on Switzerland to win Group B at 4/5 with bet365 ⚽

Group C: Can anyone halt Brazil?

Brazil have gone 24 years without a World Cup trophy and they are desperate to end their drought this summer. The Selecao should prove too strong for all three Group C opponents.

Morocco will be eyeing second place, but Scotland relish being underdogs and they will fight for every point. Haiti are up against it.

Pos.	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Win Odds
1	Brazil	0	0	0	0	0	0	3/10
2	Morocco	0	0	0	0	0	0	4/1
3	Haiti	0	0	0	0	0	0	80/1
4	Scotland	0	0	0	0	0	0	17/2

⚽ Tip Brazil and Morocco to finish first and second respectively at 11/10 with Sky Bet ⚽

Group D: Nothing guaranteed for USA

Mauricio Pochettino has a mixed record as USA manager, but the co-hosts should make it through to the round of 32. However, Türkiye look like the wisest choice to finish top of Group D.

Neither Paraguay nor Australia are blessed with an abundance of attacking riches, but both sides will be tough to play against.

Pos.	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Win Odds
1	USA	0	0	0	0	0	0	Evens
2	Paraguay	0	0	0	0	0	0	11/4
3	Australia	0	0	0	0	0	0	17/2
4	Türkiye	0	0	0	0	0	0	9/4

⚽ Bet on USA to win Group D at Evens with Sky Bet ⚽

📊 World Cup group odds analysis & live standings (Groups E – H)

Groups E to H feature a four-time champion, a coming force from Asia, and the reigning European champions aiming to conquer the world…

Group E: Germany’s redemption and Curaçao’s debut

Germany have arrived at World Cups with much better squads than this one, but it is never sensible to dismiss the chances of the Nationalelf.

Ecuador are defensively solid, but Ivory Coast have more punch in the final third. Those two teams will battle it out for second place, with Curaçao likely to finish bottom.

Pos.	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Win Odds
`1	Germany	0	0	0	0	0	0	2/5
2	Curaçao	0	0	0	0	0	0	80/1
3	Ivory Coast	0	0	0	0	0	0	9/2
4	Ecuador	0	0	0	0	0	0	11/4

⚽ Pick Germany and Ecuador to finish first and second respectively at 13/8 with Sky Bet ⚽

Group F: Japan and Netherlands fight for first

The Netherlands are the favourites to win Group F, but Japan are dark horses at this World Cup. They have a hugely talented squad and a defined style of play.

Sweden were poor in qualifying, but they possess the sort of attacking firepower that Tunisia lack. That should help Graham Potter’s team to a top-three finish.

Pos.	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Win Odds
`1	Netherlands	0	0	0	0	0	0	8/11
2	Japan	0	0	0	0	0	0	7/2
3	Sweden	0	0	0	0	0	0	9/2
4	Tunisia	0	0	0	0	0	0	7/1

⚽ Choose Japan to win Group F at 7/2 with bet365 ⚽

Group G: Kind draw for Belgium

Belgium have gone under the radar in the build-up to the World Cup, but they have a healthy mix of youth and experience, and the Group G draw was kind to them.

Egypt and Iran are both better at the back than they are going forward, while New Zealand will be the underdogs in all three group matches.

Pos.	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Win Odds
`1	Belgium	0	0	0	0	0	0	4/11
2	Egypt	0	0	0	0	0	0	9/2
3	Iran	0	0	0	0	0	0	11/2
4	New Zealand	0	0	0	0	0	0	18/1

⚽ Back New Zealand to finish bottom at 1/2 with Sky Bet ⚽

Group H: Spain to flex muscles

Spain will be able to win at least two of their group games in second gear, as Luis de la Fuente’s side aim to pace themselves as they seek glory in North America.

Uruguay have been in poor form under Marcelo Bielsa, yet they remain the obvious pick for the runners-up spot. Saudi Arabia’s experience gives them the edge over Cape Verde.

Pos.	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Win Odds
1	Spain	0	0	0	0	0	0	2/9
2	Cape Verde	0	0	0	0	0	0	50/1
3	Saudi Arabia	0	0	0	0	0	0	16/1
4	Uruguay	0	0	0	0	0	0	7/2

⚽ Put a wager on Saudi Arabia to qualify at 8/11 with Betfred ⚽

📊 World Cup group odds analysis & live standings (Groups I – L)

Groups I to L contain the reigning champions, the double finalists from 2018 and 2022, plus another of the outright favourites…

Group I: France face two dark horses

France’s squad is packed full of talent in virtually every area of the pitch, and Didier Deschamps knows how to negotiate knockout tournaments. 

Norway will score plenty of goals with a frontline led by Erling Haaland, while Senegal are probably the best team in Africa. It is hard to see Iraq going through.

Pos.	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Win Odds
1	France	0	0	0	0	0	0	1/2
2	Senegal	0	0	0	0	0	0	13/2
3	Iraq	0	0	0	0	0	0	33/1
4	Norway	0	0	0	0	0	0	5/2

⚽ Back Senegal to qualify from Group I at 2/5 with Sky Bet ⚽

Group J: Argentina begin title defence

Argentina are looking to become the first back-to-back World Cup champions since Brazil in 1962. They will expect to finish top of Group J, where Austria are their likeliest challengers.

Algeria could be hamstrung by a gruelling travel schedule, while Jordan are simply happy to be at their first ever World Cup.

Pos.	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Win Odds
1	Argentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	1/3
2	Algeria	0	0	0	0	0	0	11/2
3	Austria	0	0	0	0	0	0	9/2
4	Jordan	0	0	0	0	0	0	40/1

⚽ Select Argentina and Austria to finish first and second respectively at 6/4 with bet365 ⚽

Group K: Portugal target maximum points

Cristiano Ronaldo continues to generate headlines, but he is no longer Portugal’s most important player. Roberto Martinez has an excellent squad.

Colombia have the potential to make a major impact if things click, while DR Congo impressed in qualifying. Uzbekistan will struggle to score enough goals to advance.

Pos.	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Win Odds
1	Portugal	0	0	0	0	0	0	1/2
2	DR Congo	0	0	0	0	0	0	11/1
3	Uzbekistan	0	0	0	0	0	0	18/1
4	Colombia	0	0	0	0	0	0	2/1

⚽ Tip Uzbekistan to finish bottom at 8/13 with Sky Bet ⚽

Group L: Hard to look past European sides

England are one of the leading contenders to win the World Cup. Despite question marks over the defence, the Three Lions are the best team in Group L.

Croatia will almost certainly join them in the round of 32, while Ghana have the edge over Panama in what looks set to be a two-way tussle for third.

Pos.	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Win Odds
1	England	0	0	0	0	0	0	4/11
2	Croatia	0	0	0	0	0	0	7/2
3	Ghana	0	0	0	0	0	0	17/2
4	Panama	0	0	0	0	0	0	18/1

⚽ Pick England and Croatia to finish first and second respectively at 11/8 with Sky Bet ⚽

🎯 Expert betting strategy: the 48-team shake-up

The shift to a 48-team World Cup has implications for all sports bettors. The odds on the World Cup function in the same way as before, with the usual markets available. But the meaning of some of those markets has changed.

The most obvious example is the ‘To Qualify’ market. Previously, this would have required a top-two finish in the group stage. In 2026, 75 percent of the third-place finishers will also reach the knockout phase.

As such, prices are shorter this summer than they were in 2022, and significantly so for the heavyweight nations. If you want to back a team like France, Spain or Brazil, it is best to use the ‘Group Winner’ market.

You could also opt for the ‘Dual Forecast’ market. This sees bettors predict which two teams will finish first and second in any order. It’s an attractive wager for “Groups of Death” such as Group L, where one team might not be the clear favourite. It provides a safety net if one of the leading contenders finishes second.

In deciding final positions, head-to-head is now the primary tiebreaker. Goal difference could still be key, though, particularly between the third-place finishers in different groups.

Because there are now more opportunities to finish in a qualifying position, some teams may deliberately adopt a more attacking strategy across all three games in case one goal makes the difference at the end of the group stage. Consequently, value can be found in the Over/Under and Handicap markets.

⚽ Vital stats for acca builders

With 104 games scheduled between 11th June and 19th July, World Cup 2026 provides ample betting opportunities. Accumulators will be especially popular this summer, so we have crunched the numbers to provide some relevant data points and analysis for acca builders.

We have used World Cup 2022 as the benchmark, but bear in mind that the nature of the 2026 tournament could induce a change in approach from several sides, as we outlined in the above section. Nevertheless, there is some value in knowing some of the key statistics from the World Cup in Qatar.

• Average Goals: 2.69 per game
• Over 1.5 Goals: 73.4% hit rate
• Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 46% hit rate
• Second-Half Goals: 61% of all goals scored in the second half
• Yellow Cards: 3.55 per game
• Total Red Cards: 4
• Goals in the First 10 Minutes: 12
• Goals in the Last 10 Minutes: 33

⚽ In-play betting tactics during the group stage

As well as predicting outcomes before kick-off, punters can react to live events via in-play betting, where the odds are constantly tweaked in response to the action on the field. Below are two specific live-betting scenarios for World Cup 2026 that it is wise to be aware of as a sports bettor.

Desperation value

Top teams are not merely aiming to qualify for the knockout phase, but they are also striving to secure a favourable draw for the next round. 

This is where late-goal markets could be lucrative. Even if a powerhouse like Brazil or a co-host like the USA are drawing their final game, and are set to qualify, they may still push for the win to secure the top seed (to avoid a harder opponent in the next round) – for instance. In such cases, their in-play odds to score will stay high until the final whistle.

Rotation risks

With three teams set to advance to the knockout phase in the majority of groups, we should see fewer dead rubbers than usual. However, many teams will already know they are through on matchday three and will rotate their line-ups as a result. 

There will thus be value in underdog markets (for example, ‘Next Goal‘) that would not necessarily exist if the teams were meeting in a regular league format.

When it comes to in-play betting, watching the live table is just as important as watching the ball during the final 90 minutes of the group stage.

❓ World Cup 2026 betting FAQs

Here are some of the most frequently asked questions about the upcoming event, including 2026 World Cup odds.

1. Who will win the World Cup 2026 Golden Boot?

There are numerous candidates to win the World Cup 2026 Golden Boot, the award given to the tournament’s top scorer. Kylian Mbappe (11/2) claimed the prize in 2022 and Harry Kane (13/2) was honoured in 2018. Both players are among the favourites this time around.

Other attackers in the conversation are Lionel Messi (12/1), one of the greatest players of all time; Erling Haaland (14/1), a proven goalscorer for Manchester City and Norway; and Lamine Yamal (14/1), Spain’s teenage starlet. Full odds can be found here.

2. How do the 48-team format rules affect betting?

The change in format does affect betting strategies, particularly with regard to World Cup group winner odds. As explained above, the ‘Group Winner’ market offers reduced value at a 48-team tournament, particularly for the favourites.

Bear in mind, too, that we could see an uptick in goals in certain matches, with goal difference the primary tiebreaker for third-place finishers that finish level on points. That will have an effect on betting markets such as Over/Under and Handicap.

3. Are there any underdogs with good group winner odds?

Two underdogs with good group winner odds stand out. The first is Japan, who beat Spain and Germany at the last World Cup, and are more than capable of topping Group F. At the time of writing, the Samurai Blue can be backed at 7/2.

Meanwhile, Turkey are an attractive pick to win Group D at 12/5. The bookies fancy the USA to win that group on home soil, but Turkey are the strongest of the four sides and they will not hold back under their attack-minded manager Vincenzo Montella. 

4. Which bookie has the best free bets and offers for the World Cup?

Before placing your bets for the World Cup, remember to take a look at which bookies offer the best free bets and offers for the competition. In our estimation, Betfred, Sky Bet and bet365 are the three standout sportsbooks.

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