Hull City vs Middlesbrough prediction and betting tips – Boro promotion after spygate?

After a surprising dismissal of Southampton it is now Hull City vs Middlesbrough in the Championship Play-Off Final in an unbelievable late decision for the world’s biggest prize in football.

Hull City vs Middlesbrough best bets

• Bet on under 2.5 goals and Boro to win at 5/2 on Sky Bet
• Bet on Oli McBurnie & Morgan Whittaker 1+ SOT (includes extra time) at 20/21 on bet365
• Back Boro to win at 19/20 on Betfred

Hull City vs Middlesbrough head to head

• Date: Saturday, 23rd May 2026
• Kick-off: 4.30pm
• Venue: Wembley Stadium
• Where to watch: Sky Sports
• Referee: TBC
• Last meeting: Boro 0-1 Hull
• Last 10 matches: Hull City 4 wins, 1 draw, Boro 5 wins
• Favourite to win: Middlesbrough

Hull City vs Middlesbrough prediction

Hull City are not favoured to win this at all, having previously been huge odds against Southampton and now a similar price up against new opposition.

The decision by the EFL to remove Southampton after Spygate has been a controversial one, but Boro will be delighted to get a chance to get Premier League football with just one game to do it.

The turn of momentum and the disappointment from the semi-finals should be enough to spur them on here with a likely sell out crowd at Wembley Stadium.

Hull City did the double over Southampton and were my fancy to win against the odds, but now it looks set up for a Boro win who are the clear favourites themselves now.

Hull did just enough to get into the play-offs in the first place, having gone winless in four before winning the final game, beating Norwich City 2-1.

And coming back from 1-0 down to then beating a tough Millwall side 2-0 on aggregate, suggests they shouldn’t be discounted so easily.

Hull City vs Middlesbrough betting tips

Correct score?

The last time a team won by scoring three or more goals it was 2011 when Swansea beat Reading 4-2.

Since then we have seen just 2-1, 2-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 0-0 scorelines, with 1-0 being the most popular, showing at these recent times teams really do try and play it safe and then win it by a narrow margin.

The Championship Play-Off Final has been decided by penalties just three times in the last 12 renewals.

Hull have won this exact play-off final 1-0 twice before, against Bristol City in 2008 and then again over Sheffield Wednesday in 2016.

Key players to watch

Hull City’s Oli McBurnie and Joe Gelhardt go into this with 17 and 15 goals scored respectively this season in the Championship and the former especially brings plenty of vital experience to this kind of game.

McBurnie has hit nine shots on target in his last five appearances for the Tigers, including as many as five in one game.

Boro beat Hull away from home 4-1 in December before facing them again in the same month and losing 1-0 at the Riverside.

There were five different scorers in that 4-1 in which Boro went up by four in the first half: David Strelec, Alex Gilbert, Morgan Whittaker, Riley McGree and Joe Gelhardt.

Gelhardt netted a consolation penalty to get one back for the Tigers which was just their second shot on goal.

• Bet on under 2.5 goals and Boro to win at 5/2 on Sky Bet
• Bet on Oli McBurnie & Morgan Whittaker 1+ SOT (includes extra time) at 20/21 on bet365
• Back Boro to win at 19/20 on Betfred

Hull City vs Middlesbrough latest odds

Find the latest Hull City vs Middlesbrough betting odds here. Odds are provided by Sky Bet and are subject to change.

• Hull City – 15/4
• Draw – 23/10
• Middlesbrough – 3/4

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