2026 Tony Awards Predictions in Every Category

The 2026 Tony Awards nominations will be revealed on Tuesday, May 5, capping off one of the most competitive Broadway seasons in years and injecting a fresh round of drama into the cycle.

Lincoln Center Theatre’s revival of “Ragtime” will likely lead the nomination field, with the possibility of six performers getting nods, mirroring its season-leading eight Drama Desk bids. However, Michael Arden’s lavish staging of “The Lost Boys” could also get a lot of love from voters. And don’t forget “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York),” “Cats: The Jellicle Ball,” “Schmigadoon!” and “Titanique,” which should all enjoy nominations in multiple categories.

On the play side, the seventh Broadway production of Arthur Miller’s “Death of a Salesman,” the long-awaited mounting of Jordan Harrison’s “Marjorie Prime” and Bess Wohl’s new drama “Liberation” should each pull at least five bids apiece, with “Giant,” “Oedipus” and “Proof” trailing close behind.

But the bigger story is what the ballot reveals about Broadway’s evolving relationship with Hollywood, with its own institutional history and with the high-wire act of casting screen stars to headline big ticket revivals. Here are the 10 questions hanging over Tuesday’s big news.

Will producer Scott Rudin be welcomed back with open arms?

The single most uncomfortable question on Tuesday’s ballot has nothing to do with any performer. Scott Rudin, the 67-year-old Oscar- and Tony-winning producer of film, television and theater, is back. after a four-year exile. A bombshell 2021 story in The Hollywood Reporter documented multiple allegations from former employees of Rudin’s pattern of abusive behavior, which ranged from throwing things at staff to hurling verbal abuse. After taking a hiatus, Rudin is back producing Broadway shows, with remarkably little institutional resistance.

Following the 2021 story, Rudin issued a statement apologizing for “the pain my behavior caused to individuals, directly and indirectly,” and said he would “step back” from active work on the many projects that still carried his name. His credit was removed from a long list of theater and film projects in the months that followed.

He returned to Broadway producing in 2025 with “Little Bear Ridge Road” and now has multiple shows in this season’s eligibility pool, including “Death of a Salesman.” Laurie Metcalf, who stars in both shows, has drawn pointed criticism for publicly defending her association with Rudin and continuing to work with him. That subplot complicates what would otherwise be a clean narrative around Metcalf’s record-chasing year, and it puts Tony voters in the position of evaluating performances and productions whose marquee producer remains, for many in the community, a polarizing figure.

Will Rose Byrne join the rare class of actors nominated for an Oscar and a Tony in the same year?

Byrne’s Oscar nomination for Mary Bronstein’s dark dramedy “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” earlier this year already placed her in elite company. A best actress in a play nomination for “Fallen Angels” would add her to a list of just 27 actors in history. The last performer nominated for both an Oscar and a Tony in the same calendar year was Adam Driver in 2019, for “BlacKkKlansman” and “Burn This.” The last woman to achieve the feat was Laurie Metcalf in 2018, for “Lady Bird” and “Three Tall Women,” a year in which she also earned an Emmy nomination for “Roseanne.” Six performers, Fredric March, Shirley Booth, Audrey Hepburn, Ellen Burstyn, Mercedes Ruehl and Judi Dench, have won both awards in the same year. Six other performers have won one of the two while being nominated for both: Maureen Stapleton, Jason Robards, Katharine Hepburn, Linda Hunt, Glenn Close, and Metcalf.

The bigger swing for Byrne is a potential triple. She’s a viable Emmy contender for lead comedy actress for Apple TV’s “Platonic.” If both Tony and Emmy voters come through, Byrne would become only the fifth performer ever nominated for an Oscar, Emmy and Tony in the same year. That elite group includes Metcalf, who in 2018 earned bids for “Roseanne,” “Lady Bird” and “Three Tall Women”; Alan Alda, who did it in 2005 with “The West Wing,” “The Aviator” and “Glengarry Glen Ross”; Paul Newman, who achieved the feat with “Road to Perdition,” “Our Town” and its televised presentation; and Glenn Close, who pulled it off with “Something About Amelia,” “The Big Chill” and “The Real Thing.” Both Metcalf and Close went on to win their Tony Awards in those years — a precedent worth noting.

Speaking of Laurie Metcalf, could she rewrite the record books (again)?

Metcalf is in play for double Tony nominations this year for “Little Bear Ridge Road” and “Death of a Salesman.” The latter, as a featured actress in a play, seems to be her surefire bet after the committee weighed in. If she is nominated for both productions, she would be only the seventh actor to achieve two acting noms in the same year at the Tonys, joining Amanda Plummer (1982), Dana Ivey (1984), Kate Burton (2002), Jan Maxwell (2010), Mark Rylance (2014) and Jeremy Pope (2019).

Interestingly, she could pull off the same trick at the Emmys with supporting comedy actress for Netflix’s “Big Mistakes” and supporting actress in a limited series for “Monster: The Ed Gein Story.” Multi-category Emmy seasons are not new for her. In 2016, she received three nominations for “Getting On,” “Horace and Pete” and “The Big Bang Theory.” But a same-year Tony double and Emmy double has no precedent. If both voting bodies show up for her, Metcalf becomes a category of one.

Will Lea Michele finally pick up her first Tony nom for “Chess?”

Few Broadway storylines are more loaded. Michele was famously not nominated for “Spring Awakening” as a teenager, then turned her acclaimed “Funny Girl” replacement run into a cultural phenomenon without ever appearing on a Tony ballot (alas, she wasn’t eligible). “Chess,” the long-troubled, ABBA-pedigreed musical that Michele currently leads has been searching for its definitive Broadway embrace for almost four decades. Voters have a redemption arc opportunity sitting right in front of them.

Can June Squibb, at 96, become the oldest Tony-nominated actor in history?

Squibb’s turn in “Marjorie Prime” is one of the season’s most discussed performances. At 96, a nomination would set a Tony record. The current mark belongs to Lois Smith, who was 89 when she was nominated in 2020 for “The Inheritance” (and coincidentally played the “Marjorie Prime” role in a film version), surpassing Cicely Tyson, who was 88 when she was nominated in 2013 for “The Trip to Bountiful.” Both Smith and Tyson won the award. Squibb would own the record outright, and it looks like a near-lock based on discussions with those close to voters.

Will Kara Young extend her historic streak?

A nomination Tuesday would make five consecutive years of nods for Young, extending her own record for Black female performers across the Oscars, Emmys and Tonys. In the history of the major “Triple Crown” ceremonies, no Black actresses have ever won three consecutive years — in the same category — at any major entertainment ceremony, including the Oscars and Emmys. Currently in the Broadway realm, Young has won two consecutive Tonys, most recently for “Purpose,” following her win for “Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch.” Perhaps she can complete the three-peat herself?

Will Danny Burstein break the all-time male acting nomination record?

Burstein, in contention for “Marjorie Prime,” currently sits tied with Jason Robards as the most-nominated male actor in Tony history with eight nods. He is part of a six-way tie for fourth all-time alongside Robards, Patti LuPone, Colleen Dewhurst, Jane Alexander and Kelli O’Hara, who is herself a best actress in a play contender for “Fallen Angels.” A nomination would push Burstein, and potentially O’Hara, to their ninth career bids and into a tie with Rosemary Harris for third on the all-time acting nominations list.

Did the reclassification of Stephanie Hsu from featured to lead help or hurt her chances for “The Rocky Horror Show?”

This is a gamble that can decide some Tony seasons. Featured actress in a musical is one of the more navigable categories on the ballot, and Hsu’s Magenta would have been a near-lock there, where that role has traditionally been classified. However, after the committee deemed it lead, that category, by contrast, is a brutal field with contenders ranging from Caissie Levy in “Ragtime” to Marla Mindelle in “Titanique.” Could the “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Oscar-nominated star still find a way into the fray?

Are “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)” and “Giant” the two shows to beat?

On paper, “The Lost Boys” should be the frontrunner. Arden’s vampire spectacle has the muscle, the budget and a leading 11 nominations from the Outer Critics Circle. But “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)” has emerged as the season’s underdog pick, the kind of small, uncynical chamber musical that Tony voters have historically rewarded over flashier rivals.

Mark Rosenblatt’s debut play, anchored by veteran John Lithgow’s much-discussed turn as Roald Dahl, arrives on Broadway carrying its Olivier Award pedigree and a cultural conversation surrounding antisemitism that has only intensified since its London run. It will have challengers, notably “Liberation,” a look at ’70s feminism, that also feels timely despite being set decades ago.

Can Jean Smart sneak into the best actress in a play lineup for “Call Me Izzy”?

Smart has spent the last several Emmy cycles as the unmovable frontrunner for “Hacks.” Her Tony hopeful, “Call Me Izzy,” a one-woman play by Jamie Wax that premiered earlier this season, was well-received, but recency bias tends to favor newer productions. The question is whether enough Tony voters got to it before the play closed.

Could “The Bear” actors Ayo Edebiri, Jon Bernthal and Ebon Moss-Bachrach get on the pathway to Tony and Emmy nominations in the same year, or will they all get “fired?”

Emmy winner Ayo Edebiri made her Broadway debut in the revival “Proof,” which received solid reviews, but perhaps not as much runway to land one of the coveted spots in best actress in a play, especially given the competition. However, her “Bear” co-stars Jon Bernthal and Ebon Moss-Bachrach are in similar boats.

Both are part of “Dog Day Afternoon’s” Broadway debut, and both remain Emmy fixtures for FX’s “The Bear.” Moss-Bachrach has already won twice for the series. “Dog Day Afternoon’s” reviews have been more mixed, and the featured actor in a play race is one of the most competitive categories on the ballot. If I were a betting man, I’d say Bernthal is the one with the best shot of the three.

Will Patrick Ball trade his “Pitt” scrubs for a Tony nomination?

Ball’s run in “Becky Shaw” arrived just as his HBO medical drama “The Pitt” cemented him as one of the breakout TV faces of the year. Tony voters have a pattern of recognizing actors at exactly this kind of cultural inflection point.

The 2026 Tony Awards will be presented Sunday, June 7, at Radio City Music Hall. The final Tony predictions are below.

Best Musical
“The Lost Boys”
“Schmigadoon!”
“Titanique”
“Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”

Alternate: “Beaches”

Best Play
“The Balusters”
“Giant”
“Liberation”
“Little Bear Ridge Road”

Alternate: “The Fear of 13”

Musical Revival
“Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
“Ragtime”
“The Rocky Horror Picture Show”

Alternate: “Chess”

Play Revival
“Becky Shaw”
“Bug”
“Death of a Salesman”
“Marjorie Prime”
“Oedipus”

Alternate: “Proof”

Actor (Musical)
Nicholas Christopher, “Chess”
Luke Evans, “Rocky Horror Picture Show”
Joshua Henry, “Ragtime”
Sam Tutty, “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”
Brandon Uranowitz, “Ragtime”

Alternate: LJ Benet, “The Lost Boys”

Actor (Play)
Adrien Brody, “The Fear of 13”
Nathan Lane, “Death of a Salesman”
John Lithgow, “Giant”
Daniel Radcliffe, “Every Brilliant Thing”
Mark Strong, “Oedipus”

Alternate: Jon Bernthal, “Dog Day Afternoon”

Actress (Musical)
Sara Chase, “Schmigadoon!”
Caissie Levy, “Ragtime”
Lea Michele, “Chess”
Marla Mindelle, “Titanique”
Christiani Pitts, “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”

Alternate: Stephanie Hsu, “The Rocky Horror Picture Show”

Actress (Play)
Rose Byrne, “Fallen Angels”
Carrie Coon, “Bug”
Susannah Flood, “Liberation”
Lesley Manville, “Oedipus”
Laurie Metcalf, “Little Bear Ridge Road”

Alternate: Kelli O’Hara, “Fallen Angels”

Featured Actor (Musical)
Ali Louis Bourzgui, “The Lost Boys”
Max Clayton, “Schmigadoon!”
Jim Parsons, “Titanique”
Ben Levi Ross, “Ragtime”
Andre De Shields, “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”

Alternate: Sydney James Harcourt, “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”

Featured Actor (Play)
Christopher Abbott, “Death of a Salesman”
Danny Burstein, “Marjorie Prime”
Elliott Levey, “Giant”
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone”
Charlie Thurston, “Liberation”

Alternate: Alden Ehrenreich, “Becky Shaw”

Featured Actress (Musical)
Shoshana Bean, “The Lost Boys”
Ana Gasteyer, “Schmigadoon!”
McKenzie Kurtz, “Schmigadoon!”
Nichelle Lewis, “Ragtime”
Tempress Chasity Moore, “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”

Alternate: Hanna Cruz, “Chess”

Featured Actress (Play)
Betsy Aidem, “Liberation”
Linda Emond, “Becky Shaw”
Laurie Metcalf, “Death of a Salesman”
June Squibb, “Marjorie Prime”
Kara Young, “Proof”

Alternate: Cynthia Nixon, “Marjorie Prime”

Director (Musical)
Michael Arden, “The Lost Boys”
Lear DeBessonet, “Ragtime”
Christopher Gattelli, “Schmigadoon!”
Tim Jackson, “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”
Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”

Alternate: Sam Pinkleton, “The Rocky Horror Picture Show”

Director (Play)
Nicholas Hytner, “Giant”
Robert Icke, “Oedipus”
Anne Kauffman, “Marjorie Prime”
Joe Mantello, “Death of a Salesman”
Whitney White, “Liberation”

Alternate: Trip Cullman, “Becky Shaw”

Original Score
“Beaches”
“The Lost Boys”
“The Queen of Versailles”
“Schmigadoon!”
“Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”

Alternate: “Proof”

Musical Book
“The Lost Boys”
“Schmigadoon!”
“Titanique”
“Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”

Alternate: “Chess”

Choreography
“Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
“The Lost Boys”
“Ragtime”
“The Rocky Horror Picture Show”
“Schmigadoon!”

Alternate: “Punch”